While some pundits may go with their hearts and put their money on the biggest teams, others prefer a more scientific, stats-based approach to deciding on their wagers. Some rely purely on the most common margins of victory and key numbers to make their decision, while others like to get a full sense of a team’s recent performance by looking at some of the most important metrics. Here are the five most important statistics that you should consider when you’re placing bets on the NFL.
Yardage
It’s not only about recent games and the points scored when you’re looking at a team’s most recent performance. Yardage is a very good indicator too. There are a good number of yardage stats you can look at to determine point scoring chances, but the biggest to consider are offensive yards per carry, offensive yards per attempt, and offensive starting positions. Of course, when you’re putting money down on football games online, don’t forget to consider the defense either.
Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards
The ability for an NFL team to defend is absolutely just as important as it is for them to attack. The most important statistic that you’ll want to look at for the defensive contribution of each team on your betting slip is their defensive points allowed per 100 yards. Calculating this is quite easy. Take the total number of yards a defensive team has allowed their opponents, divide it by 100, and take that result and divide it by the number of points their opponents have scored against them. You’re looking for a consistent result of below 6.0, but between 6.0 and 7.0 is normal.
Turnover Margin
This is a statistic that might be entrenched in luck, but it’s an important one none the less as it can help weed out where teams might be overvalued in their odds. Turnovers can have a huge impact on a game, often the deciding factor between victory and defeat, so it’s an important statistic to consider.
Time of Possession
The time of possession statistic is all about control. It’s a remarkably good indicator of how well the offensive team is controlling the game, and that means that they’re not working their defensive team hard in the early parts of the game and they’ll be full of energy late into the game. It’s not the only statistic that matters, but it’s one that’s worth looking at, as long as you understand that bigger leads are going to mean a higher time of possession, so the larger the lead, the less important this statistic becomes.
Monday night football is a great reason to get the family together for some bonding time over that week’s big game, or a good reason to head to a bar and catch the action with some friends. It’s made all the more exciting when you have some skin in the game. Just remember to bet responsibly!
