Super Bowl 57 Odds Preview and Best Bet

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By: Nicholas Berault

 

After another captivating free agency period and NFL Draft, it’s a great time to revisit the odds for this upcoming season’s Super Bowl champion. Last year’s matchup featured one of the betting favorites, the Los Angeles Rams, against one of the league’s underdog teams in the Cincinnati Bengals. Bettors dream of betting on the team with little to no championship expectations that can pull off what the Bengals did in 2021, but it’s difficult to have that team actually win the big one. In the last 20 seasons, the teams with the three longest preseason odds that won the Super Bowl are the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles (40-1), the 2007 New York Giants (30-1), and the Giants again in 2011 (22-1). 13 of the last 20 Super Bowl Champions have had preseason odds of 12-1 or shorter, including six of the last seven years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams favored to win it all in 2022 and see if this trend of the cream rising to the top continues.

Five teams currently have odds of less than 12-1 to win Super Bowl 57. The Buffalo Bills lead the way at +650, followed closely by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +750 and the Kansas City Chiefs at +975. The Packers are in fourth spot at 10-1 with the defending champion Rams listed at 11-1. The biggest mover of this bunch during the offseason was Tampa Bay, whose odds swung wildly after Tom Brady announced his retirement and then soon after announced he was changing his mind. He will return for the 2022 season. Bettors could have pounced on that number as high as 22-1 during Brady’s brief hiatus from the game, and instead now find the Bucs as near co-favorites with the Bills.

It’s shaping up to be the Bills season, if oddsmakers have any say. In addition to being Super Bowl favorites, coach Sean McDermott is favored to win NFL Coach of the Year and quarterback Josh Allen is the slight MVP-favorite over a few of his quarterback peers from the other Super Bowl favorites. If the Bills were to lift the Lombardi trophy at the end of this season, it would be a massive weight lifted off the shoulders of one of the more famously tortured NFL fan bases. Buffalo has won the AFC East each of the last two seasons, and suffered playoff losses to the Chiefs in both years. They’ll likely need to summit that hill once and for all if they hope to emerge from the AFC in 2022, and are betting favorites over Kansas City for the first time in recent history.

The Chiefs are replacing one of the key weapons in their offense this season after trading All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. One of the most memorable aspects of Kansas City’s recent dominance is Patrick Mahomes constantly scampering around the pocket and unleashing heaves that somehow always seem to float into the waiting arms of Hill. That possibility is gone this season, and Juju Smith-Shuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been brought in to replace that production. Kansas City is seeking their third Super Bowl appearance in four years, and if they return to the AFC Championship game in 2022 that would mark five straight seasons of being on the doorstep to play for a ring.

Tampa Bay will factor heavily into this season’s championship picture, thanks to the return of Brady. Their depth chart will look almost identical to last year’s, though head coach Bruce Arians is gone in favor of Todd Bowles. Bowles was defensive coordinator for the Bucs over the last three seasons, including their Super Bowl victory in the 2020 season. The Bucs may not have what it takes to go all the way this season, but we have a feeling they will be competitive during the regular season. You can check out how the Bucs square up each week with this NFL picks model that picks a winner for every game before kickoff. The Bucs will have tough competition for the long haul in the NFC in the form of the Packers and Rams. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers lost his star receiver, Davante Adams, via trade to the Raiders in a surprising move this offseason. Where the Rams may need to replace both Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods, they brought in Allen Robinson to flank Cooper Kupp and provide a solid receiving threat in this prolific offense.

The next tier of teams in terms of 2022 odds are the LA Chargers (15-1), San Francisco 49ers (16-1), Denver Broncos (17-1), Dallas Cowboys (18-1), and Baltimore Ravens (+1850). Interestingly, the defending AFC-champion Cincinnati Bengals hold the 11th-best odds at +2150 and made significant upgrades on the offensive line after Joe Burrow was running for his life the entire postseason. As a team that was 150-1 a year ago before a season in which they proved just about the entire league wrong, this number feels more appropriate, and possibly even slightly underrated given the performance displayed by the Bengals young core on offense.

As for this year’s sleepers, a few teams stand out. Arizona at +3350 is fair given their inability to protect Kyler Murray and the fact that they play the Rams and 49ers twice. Despite that, the team has a lot of talent and could compete with anyone in a given week. The New Orleans Saints (45-1) will begin the post-Sean Payton era in a weak division where only Tampa Bay stands in between them and a potential wild card berth. Jameis Winston is the ultimate wild card at quarterback who will likely determine how good this team can be. Finally, New England is 40-1 currently despite making the postseason in 2021 with a rookie starting quarterback and being top six in the NFL in points for and against. This is excellent value for a Bill Belichick coached team that is still going to pose a challenge for many teams in this league.

For this year’s best bet, we see the best value in the Denver Broncos at 17-1. Russell Wilson steps into a team that desperately needs some offensive direction, but is one of the best in the NFL defensively. Tail our pick and sign up for a new sportsbook to bet our Super Bowl winner for free. Much worse quarterbacks than Wilson have been carried to playoff berths, and even Super Bowl titles, by defenses as good as Denver’s. The idea of taking them before any sports books have the chance to see the Broncos play is too enticing to pass up. If NFL futures aren’t your thing don’t worry because PicksforTonight has you covered with picks for every game, every week, for the entire year from their algorithm that simulates each game 10,000 times to find the perfect pick.